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🟦 ANALYSIS STICKY
FIRST DIVERGENCE / EVIDENCE LADDER
PURPOSE
Do not try to “guess the culprit” first.
Find the earliest point where expected behavior and observed behavior diverge,
then stop there and classify what is actually known.
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1. FIRST DIVERGENCE
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Trace the flow in order.
Example:
input
→ launcher
→ runtime
→ configuration
→ task
→ output
Do not jump directly from:
“final output is missing”
to:
“the output generator is broken”
Instead ask:
“What is the first confirmed point where the flow stops behaving as expected?”
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2. OBSERVED ≠ EXPLAINED
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Keep these separate:
OBSERVED
What was directly seen in logs, source, runtime, screenshots, or files.
INFERENCE
What the observed evidence strongly suggests.
UNKNOWN
What has not yet been proven.
Do not silently promote an inference into a confirmed fact.
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3. USE AN EVIDENCE LADDER
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Raise confidence one step at a time.
Example:
SUSPICIOUS
↓
Version mismatch found
↓
Official documentation confirms unsupported pairing
↓
Observed failure text matches that mismatch
↓
Stack trace identifies exact exception/component
↓
CAUSE CONFIRMED
Do not skip levels.
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4. SEPARATE PRIMARY FAILURE FROM LATER NOISE
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A later error is not automatically part of the original failure.
If the build fails first,
and PowerShell navigation errors happen afterward,
treat them as separate events unless evidence connects them.
Order matters.
Always preserve:
FIRST FAILURE
→ later actions
→ later secondary errors
==================================================
5. DO NOT OVER-TRACE NORMAL PARTS
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Once the first divergence is found,
do not continue tracing unrelated upstream/downstream components
unless the current evidence requires it.
Example:
If the runtime fails during initialization,
do not inspect application UI logic,
business logic,
or unrelated source files.
Narrow scope is a feature.
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6. TASK FAILURE ≠ TASK DEFECT
==================================================
A task can fail to complete because something earlier failed.
Example:
Wrapper files are missing
does NOT prove
the wrapper task itself is broken.
Possible real flow:
Gradle starts
→ runtime incompatibility
→ configuration fails
→ wrapper task never completes
Always distinguish:
TASK DEFECT
from
TASK NEVER REACHED / TASK INTERRUPTED
==================================================
7. STOP BEFORE REPAIR
==================================================
Analysis and repair are different jobs.
If the assignment is READ ONLY / CAUSE ANALYSIS:
– identify the failure boundary
– identify evidence
– classify confidence
– request the smallest missing evidence
– STOP
Do not “helpfully” modify files,
change versions,
replace components,
or introduce alternate build paths.
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8. ASK FOR THE SMALLEST NEXT EVIDENCE
==================================================
Do not request everything.
Ask for the one artifact that can raise confidence the next step.
Examples:
– exact failure block
– stack trace
– single config file
– one runtime screenshot
– one source path
– one version output
Minimal evidence keeps the investigation clean.
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9. PREFERRED REPORT SHAPE
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CONFIRMED
– directly verified facts
INFERENCE
– what the evidence strongly suggests
UNKNOWN
– what is still missing
FIRST DIVERGENCE
– earliest confirmed break in the flow
CAUSE STATUS
– UNKNOWN
– CANDIDATE
– HIGH-CONFIDENCE
– CONFIRMED
NEXT REQUIRED EVIDENCE
– smallest artifact needed to advance
STOP BOUNDARY
– what must not be investigated or modified yet
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10. CORE RULE
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Do not hunt for a culprit.
Narrow the boundary.
Evidence first.
Order first.
First divergence first.
Repair later.
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